Boras Blog

Oh Manny Dont You Weep No More

LA Daily News is reporting that Manny to the dodgers at 2/45 is a done deal.

It has been a long negotiation, that is for sure.  At the start of the off-season, it was widely reported that the dodgers had offered 1/25 and 2/45 contracts.  Boras took a lot of heat when those offers were rejected, but at the end of the day he cost himself and his client nothing, while buying himself plenty of time to try to create a market or entice a new buyer to enter the market.

Evaluating this deal on its own merit, considering the market environment, Boras did a fine job for his client.  The number of years was a critical factor given Ramirez' age, but I believe it was Ramirez behavior in Boston that prevented teams from committing long term.  $22.5m per season is top dollar, and Boras should be commended for his patience and diligence.

Side note:  As you may imagine, this blog is a lot more fun to write during the off season, when teams are weeling and dealing, than I expect it to be during the season.  I plan to keep up with events as they unfold, but posting should be a bit more sporadic until the amateur draft and trade deadline. Manny closes the book on a very exciting off-season - thanks to all who have been following from our point of view.

Rejected

Multiple reports came out last night saying that the Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez a 1/25 contract.  Only a couple hours later, Dodgers spokesman Josh Rawitch said that GM Ned Colletti met with Scott Boras the previous day, and then sent out the following email:

"Hey guys, just a quick confirmation that Scott Boras and Ned spoke tonight and that Scott rejected the Dodgers' offer."

So, where does Scott Boras go from here?  The Dodgers seem to be a dead end.  I dont think Boras or Manny Ramirez are going to respond to Colletti drawing a line in the sand.  They need another team to step up.

We wrote about the Mets being a possibility,  but now they might be out $20m per year from the CitiGroup sponsorship, and CNBC is reporting that they may be forced to sell minority ownership.  Bad timing.

So who else might get involved?  According to the LA Times:

The New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals are among the teams known to be monitoring Ramirez's situation but don't appear inclined to pay him more than $20 million a season. The Angels failed to re-sign All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira, another Boras client, but have said they won't bid for Ramirez.

We heard about the Giants before.  To me, Ramirez swings the Giants over the Dodgers for the top team in the division.  The Nationals could make sense - they need a "draw", but I dont see them going long term.  I would bet that Boras is working now to stir up interest in Arizona, Colorado, Atlanta, Baltimore and both sides of Chicago.  30 teams is a large pool from which to find a match, and budget forecasting as well as performance forecasting is very much a moving target. 

You Can't Predict Anything in a Reliable Way

Ned Colletti is quoted in an MLB.com article about whether the Dodgers will be bringing Manny back.  The article reports that there is nothing to report, but then provides the following quote from Colletti:

"The way the economy is, you can't predict anything in a reliable way," said Colletti. "There's no way to know how the fanbase will cope with the economy. As a result, this season might be more dynamic than any other. Traditionally, you can forecast your revenues and your payroll. This year, there may be movement all year as we see things evolve."

I thought that was an interesting quote and very revealing about the hesitancy surrounding so many teams this year.  That said, I would suspect that Billy Bean has a very good handle on expected revenues for this year, but I digress...

One day later, MLB Rumors posted the following excellent post, which is far more upbeat:

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was interviewed on MLB's Hot Stove show today, with the focus of the interview on Manny Ramirez. He said all the usual things like " sometimes the process takes longer than you want", and "we need to be comfortable with some things, and Scott's side needs the same."

But one statement stood out, leading me to beleive that LA will outbid any team that gets involved in the Manny talks. When asked about whether the rumors that the Giants are involved in the Manny sweepstakes comes into the decision making process in LA to prevent their rivals from signing Manny,  Colletti responded "We want him bad enough that I don't think it makes much difference who else is going to get involved.". He did acknowledge that any team signing Manny, whether in the NL West or not, would benefit greatly from his presence in their lineup. Sounds like Boras is winning this chess match.

The last question asked was whether Colletti was still leaning toward a 2 year deal with Manny. Colletti did not say yes, did not say no.

Leads me to beleive that Colletti is confident he can resign Manny, but they are just haggling on the terms of the deal, money and length of contract.

A Fresh Start

Its official - the Dodgers released Andruw Jones.

Scott Boras, Jones' agent, approached the Dodgers with the plan to get Jones a fresh start. Deferring the salary from the back-loaded contract provides the Dodgers with some payroll flexibility that could facilitate the re-signing of another Boras client, Manny Ramirez.

So Andruw gets his chance to get back into shape and set himself up for a possible contract following 2009, and the Dodgers open up an OF spot for either Pierre or Manny.  Its hard to believe that Andruw Jones is only 31 years old and that he hit 92 homers with 257 rbi from 2005-2006.  Well, I should say that he is "officially" 31 years old - he passes for 31 about as well as this guy passed for a 10 year old.

Sure Andruw looks completely finished, sure he was kicked off his winter ball team, but we have seen other guys like Jason Giambi and Carlos Delgado come back from the brink.  Sabernomics sees a little bit of upside, so we'll see.  First thing first - Boras has to find a full time job for Andruw - but with Matt Diaz and Brandon Jones penciled in at LF for Atlanta, that shouldnt be a problem.  If Andruw ends up in Atlanta and Manny in LA, this will turn out to be a very creative solution to two problems.

Manny & the Dodgers 2/45 Offer

Tony Paul writes about Manny Ramirez' free agency for the Detroit News. 

No wonder Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has stood firm on his club's original two-year, $45 million offer, once considered laughable by Ramirez and agent Scott Boras. But Colletti knew then what we're all grasping now: There are no other bidders, except for perhaps the Giants. But they're tapped out, and 28 other teams appear to be fed up.

I pretty much agree, in that I would be surprised if another team does top the Dodgers' original offer.  But from Boras' point of view, I think the main thing is that the dodgers offer is still out there.  So, even if no other team does emerge, waiting out the original offer didnt have any downside whatsoever.