Boras Blog

A Fresh Start

Its official - the Dodgers released Andruw Jones.

Scott Boras, Jones' agent, approached the Dodgers with the plan to get Jones a fresh start. Deferring the salary from the back-loaded contract provides the Dodgers with some payroll flexibility that could facilitate the re-signing of another Boras client, Manny Ramirez.

So Andruw gets his chance to get back into shape and set himself up for a possible contract following 2009, and the Dodgers open up an OF spot for either Pierre or Manny.  Its hard to believe that Andruw Jones is only 31 years old and that he hit 92 homers with 257 rbi from 2005-2006.  Well, I should say that he is "officially" 31 years old - he passes for 31 about as well as this guy passed for a 10 year old.

Sure Andruw looks completely finished, sure he was kicked off his winter ball team, but we have seen other guys like Jason Giambi and Carlos Delgado come back from the brink.  Sabernomics sees a little bit of upside, so we'll see.  First thing first - Boras has to find a full time job for Andruw - but with Matt Diaz and Brandon Jones penciled in at LF for Atlanta, that shouldnt be a problem.  If Andruw ends up in Atlanta and Manny in LA, this will turn out to be a very creative solution to two problems.

I Rob Banks Because That's Where the Money Is

Eric Dorval at the Examiner has a hysterical take on the Derek Lowe signing.

Fallout from the Lowe Zone

Scott Boras not only made himself look really good with the Lowe contract, he also made both Frank Wren and Omar Minaya look really bad.  For starters, the Braves simply overpaid.  Not only did they pay for an aging pitcher, they did so in a weak market, and they paid well above the next highest known bidder.

Real GM Baseball sums up how badly they overpaid:

At $15 million per season and 36, 37, 38 and 39, Lowe will be paid handsomely and surely more than he is worth, so credit to Boras for that. Lowe was ranked 50th amongst all players (22nd amongst starters) in FIC in 2008 and had a Reina Value of +25%, 'deserving' to make $12.5 million. 

Another thing to point out is that Lowe's era in 2008 was his lowest since 2002, and 50 points below his career average.  I certainly wouldnt expect him to stay at the $12.5m level he was in 2008 going forward. 

As for how this affects Omar Minaya and the Mets,Fanhouse notes that "Plan B" just got expensive for the Mets.

The dance that the Mets have tried to play with Scott Boras and his clients this winter just got a lot trickier now that Omar Minaya's top option is off to the division rival Braves. Losing out on Derek Lowe leaves Oliver Perez as the best option to fill a top rotation spot for the Mets. And it leaves Boras firmly in the drivers seat.

The Mets, who held firm on their three-year, $36 million offer to him, must have known that Lowe was headed to the Braves. They were losing their grip on him, so they tried to turn the market in their favor by offering Perez three years at $30 million, hoping he would bite quickly. 

But now that Perez stands front and center as the top free-agent starter available, the Mets aren't getting away that cheaply. Nor are they likely to get away with a three-year deal now that Lowe got his four years.

The one thing in the Mets' favor is that the Perez rumors have been completely quiet in terms of other teams. But for the Mets to assume that they're bidding against themselves for Perez would be asinine. They thought they were bidding against themselves for Lowe when they offered him $36 million, and it only gave other teams an opportunity to gather up some money feeling they had a chance to step in. (And, really, the Mets should have known that the Braves, who had a boatload of money earmarked for A.J. Burnett and Rafael Furcal, would spend it on somebody.)

They called Boras' bluff (or what they thought was a bluff), and let him look elsewhere instead of doing everything they could to get Lowe, a mistake for a team with holes in the starting rotation. They basically drove Lowe, a guy who had said that he preferred to pitch in the Northeast, down South and into the arms of the Braves. (Though to be real, if a Scott Boras client got top dollar from Siberia, that's where he'd pitch.)

And I'm sure that if the Mets try to pull the same "take it or leave it" stance on Perez, a team like the Brewers might consider getting some money together and making a more attractive offer to him. So now that they've refused to spend the money on Lowe, they're forced to either overspend on Perez, or look at options like Randy Wolfand Jon Garland, or perhaps hope that Ben Sheets' injuries are behind him, and keep their fingers crossed. If that's the case, that improved bullpen the Mets have might lose its impact this season. And if that's the case, the Mets will have spent responsibly but not necessarily wisely.

As we have been saying here, the Mets lost all bargaining leverage they may have had over Perez, but they can still get it back by showing interest in Sheets. 

Tracking Lowe and Oliver Perez

Mets Mix has an interesting blog post about the Omar/Boras negotiations for Lowe and/or Oliver Perez.

Omar Minaya has shown the shrewd ability to let the market dictate the offer he is willing to make for any potential free agent. With the free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, the lack of teams needing a closer for their bullpens enabled him to lower the package to offer to Boras and Rodriguez. The three year $37 million deal that lured Rodriguez to the Mets was way below the initial posturing Boras had wanted for his client before free agency began.

So the game of poker began beteen Omar and Boras. Boras will look to bluff Omar into a higher offer by creating either real or imaginary additional offers for his clients. A quote from Scott Boras "In my discussions with teams, I don't really talk about offers that I have received and not received," "I read about these things, but I don't really acknowledge them".

Meanwhile, Tigers Ground is suggesting that Boras would prefer to sign Lowe with Atlanta:

The Mets are leaning "slightly" toward right-hander Derek Lowe over lefty Oliver Perez, according to a major-league source; they are almost certain to get one of them. The Phillies, Angels and Brewers are not seriously involved with Lowe, and the market for Perez looks even thinner. The Dodgers, Brewers and Braves do not appear interested. One GM believes that Scott Boras would prefer Lowe to join the Braves so that Perez would be assured of a place with the Mets ...

That does make perfect sense to me.  If Boras can bring Perez back to the Mets, there are still buyers for Lowe, with Atlanta being the likely destination.  But, if the Mets sign Lowe, the makret for Perez could be thin, as there have been no rumors connecting Perez to any other organizations.

Derek Lowe In Play

John Harper of the Daily News writes that Boras met with the Mets to talk Derek Lowe.  Reports are that the Mets had offered 3/36 and would be willing to go to 3/42 with a fourth year option based on performance in year three.  Mets GM Omar Minaya has been patient, comfortable with the fact that he has no one bidding against him for Lowe.

Only a few hours later, Boras effectively created a competitive market by Meeting with the Mets' division rival Braves.  According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the meeting was with GM Frank Wren, Manager Bobby Cox, plus a recruiting call from Chipper Jones.

It seemed that there was no market for Lowe - now there are two rivals bidding against each other.  It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  Both GMs suffer from even less leverage, due to the fact that the obvious fallback option, Oliver Perez, is also a Boras client - meaning it is impossible to posture any negotiations with Perez without going through Boras.

I am wondering - what happens to Perez' value once Lowe signs?  If the Mets and Braves are, in fact, the only bidders, perhaps the best way to get top value for both is to line up the deals for each of them now, while there is still competition and before Ben Sheets signs with either of these teams.  I think we could see a Lowe deal within a week, with Perez signing immediately following.