And Then There Was One

The LA Dodgers gather for spring training on Saturday, 48 hours from now, with Juan Pierre set to take Manny's spot in the lineup.  According to Baseball Prospectus' latest PECOTA projections, that is an OPS difference of .930 to .671.  It is a VORP difference of 49 to 5.4.  It is a 62 point EQA difference.  It is a 2.6 WARP difference.  It is a 23.3 SuperVorp difference.  According to the WOPR, that is the difference between a game of tic tac toe and a nuclear war with Russia.  According to the Whopper, it is a defrosted veggie burger patty, left out overnight.  According to the Doppler, this is a snow storm on Maui.  According to the spork, this is eating with chopsticks.

There hasnt been much movement on the Manny talks, just that Colletti is "still interested", but seemingly not budging, and the Giants remain on the periphery.  Boras meanwhile has Ankiel's arbitration case today, and has been preoccupied with the A-rod nonsense.  So why I am convinced that the signing will happen today or tomorrow?

Because all this time Colletti had plenty of options.  There was Pat Burrell.  There was Raul Ibanez.  There was Bobby Abreu.  There was Adam Dunn.  There was no hurry.

With Abreu and Dunn signing over the last two days, the Dodgers have to accept the fact that if they dont sign Manny, the downgrade will be to Juan Pierre, which is very, very steep.  The Dodgers have their backs against the wall - against a built in deadline and with no options to get them out of this mess.  I believe that they will capitulate, and it will happen soon.

Comments

[Brandon Bentley]

According to my math textbook, the result of the ratio of goodness (spork:chopsticks) is the only number that actually exceeds infinity.

[Aryeh]

Good post.

I'm not sure why you had to stick with the old fashioned spork reference when the spife is all the rage in multi-function cutlery these days.

Anyways, if my memory serves me well, generally the top guys would sign early and "set the market" for the rest of the guys. Here it was the opposite. When you bring what Manny brings to the table (well, to the plate), you want to be the last available option. The fact that Manny and Boras were able to be so patient - even with very impressive offers having been made - seems like it will serve them very well. It didn't work out nearly as well for Messrs. Dunn and Abreu who would have really really benefitted from having been able to follow Manny's signing of a 2-year $50+ million contract.

[Jumbo]

Good writing.

This seems like a 3 party game among the Dodgers, Boras, and the Giants.

The Dodgers do not want to bid against themselves. Especially after such massively bad signings as Pierre, Schmidt, and Andruw Jones.

The Giants either want to land Manny or cost the Dodgers.

This standoff could continue for a while. Will Pierre bat 3rd?

[pft]

To the Dodgers I say the Manny you saw last year in a contract year will not be the Manny you see in 2009 with a multi-year contract, especially if he is not happy about the dollars.

Better to offer him 30 million for 1 year, than 45 for 2 years or 3 years at 65 million.

Playing for another contract in the hope gas will go back up, and Manny will fill an additional 500,000 seats easily.

I am a Red Sox fan BTW.

It might be in Manny's interest to sit out most of ST and see if some other slugger on another team gets hurt.

[Phil]

Brandon: if Manny:Pierre > spork:chopsticks, can we assume Manny is an infinite improvement?

Thanks Aryeh. We'll know soon enough if the patience was the right move. Though either way its not like they were turning down four year offers in November, so it shouldnt end up being a bad move.

Jumbo - isnt it funny how they suddenly become prudent when an actual hall of famer is on the table? Pierre should bat 9th, behind the pitcher and with his speed next to Furcal.

Pft - It shouild be the same Manny, if he keeps himself in shape. The guy has never had an off year in his career - people dont talk about his consistency, just the headlines.